1 REM NEWC1 COMPUTER PROGRAM TO ACCOMPANY NEWFOOD(C) PARTII 7/24/73 2 REM DEV A RISK PROFILE BASED ON TRIAL AND REPEAT INFO 3 REM CASE2, HP 36841A, 2/74 (NEWC2, PART 7 OF 8) 10 LET N=200 20 LET Z1=2.6 30 DIM S[20] 40 FOR I=1 TO 20 50 LET S[I]=0 60 NEXT I 70 X=0 80 LET E=0 90 LET V=0 100 PRINT "POPULATION SIZE"; 110 INPUT C1 120 PRINT "MIN, MOST LIKELY, MAX TRIAL RATE"; 130 INPUT A[1],M[1],B[1] 140 PRINT "MIN,MOST LIKELY, MAX REPEAT RATE"; 150 INPUT A[2],M[2],B[2] 160 PRINT "MIN, MOST LIKELY, MAX REP UNITS PER REPEATER"; 170 INPUT A[3],M[3],B[3] 180 PRINT "AVE UNITS ON TRIAL"; 190 INPUT R 200 PRINT "PRICE,MARGIN PER UNIT,TOTAL FIXED COST"; 210 INPUT S,M,F1 220 PRINT 230 FOR Z=1 TO 3 240 LET K[Z]=(M[Z]-A[Z])/(B[Z]-A[Z]) 250 LET H[Z]=Z1*1.414/(B[Z]-A[Z]) 260 LET Y[Z]=M[Z]+(2/SQR(3.1416))*(1-2*K[Z])/H[Z] 270 NEXT Z 280 PRINT "EXPECTED TRIAL RATE";Y[1] 290 PRINT "EXPECTED REPEAT RATE=",Y[2] 300 PRINT "EXPECTED REP VOL PER REPEATER=",Y[3] 310 PRINT 320 D1=C1*Y[1]*(R+Y[2]*Y[3]) 330 LET D3=D1*M 340 LET D4=D1*M-F1 350 PRINT "EXPECTED VALUE P/L" 360 PRINT 370 PRINT "UNIT SALES",INT(D1) 380 PRINT "$ SALES",INT(D1*S) 390 PRINT "NET REV",INT(D4) 400 PRINT 410 FOR J=1 TO N 420 FOR Z=1 TO 3 430 LET X=RND(X) 440 IF X20 THEN 620 610 GOTO 650 620 LET I=20 630 GOTO 650 640 I=1 650 LET S[I]=S[I]+1 660 IF J/50 <> INT(J/50) THEN 680 670 PRINT "SIM IS";J/N;"COMPLETED" 680 NEXT J 690 PRINT 700 PRINT "UNIT SALES","$ SALES","NET REV","CUM PROB" 710 FOR I=1 TO 20 720 Y=C9+(C8-C9)*I/20 730 LET E=Y*S[I]/N+E 740 LET V=S[I]/N+V 750 Y=INT((Y+(C8-C9)/40)+.5) 760 PRINT Y,Y*S,Y*M-F1,V 770 IF V>.9999 THEN 790 780 NEXT I 790 END