1 REM ADBG: AN ADVERTISING BUDGETING MODEL 7/23/73 2 REM THIS VERSION WAS PREPARED FOR USE WITH CASTLE COFFEE (B) 3 REM CASE1: CASES IN COMPUTER AND MODEL ASSISTED MARKETING:PLANNING 4 REM 36790 REV A, 2/74 ADBUDG, PART 1 OF 5 10 DIM Z$[72],A[10],B[10],C[10],X[20],V[10],W[10],U[11],K[11] 15 DIM J[3,10] 17 DIM P[10],Q[10] 20 DIM E[10],F[10],H[10],T[10],S[10] 27 REM CASTLE COFFEE QUARTERLY DATA (TABLE 4) AT LINE 5000 29 PRINT 30 Z3=0 35 Z5=0 40 Z4=1 50 PRINT "INPUT WITH DATA STATEMENTS "; 60 INPUT Z$ 70 IF Z$[1,1]="N" THEN 120 80 Z3=1 90 READ N,M0,X0,M1,M9,M5,L9,E0,F0 100 READ C1,P1,K[1],U[1],P2 110 GOTO 420 120 PRINT "NUMBER OF PERIODS(MAX 10) "; 130 INPUT N 133 PRINT 135 PRINT "REFERENCE CASE CONDITIONS" 140 PRINT "MKT SHARE AT START OF PERIOD "; 150 INPUT M0 160 PRINT "ADV RATE TO MAINTAIN SHARE (MM $/PERIOD) "; 170 INPUT X0 180 PRINT "MKT SHARE AT END OF PERIOD" 190 PRINT " IF ADV REDUCED TO ZERO "; 200 INPUT M1 210 PRINT " IF ADV INCREASED TO SATURATION "; 220 INPUT M9 230 PRINT " IF ADV INCREASED 20% OVER MAINTENANCE RATE "; 240 INPUT M5 250 PRINT "MKT SHARE IN LONG RUN IF ADV REDUCED TO ZERO "; 260 INPUT L9 270 PRINT "INDEX OF MEDIA EFFICIENCY "; 280 INPUT E0 290 PRINT "INDEX OF COPY EFFECTIVENESS "; 300 INPUT F0 310 PRINT "CONTRIBUTION PROFIT (BEFORE ADV. EXP.)" 320 PRINT "EXPRESSED IN DOLLARS/SALES UNIT "; 330 INPUT C1 340 PRINT "AVERAGE BRAND PRICE($/UNIT)"; 350 INPUT P1 355 PRINT "OTHER DATA:" 360 PRINT "MKT SHARE IN PREVIOUS PERIOD "; 370 INPUT K[1] 380 PRINT "PRODUCT SALES RATE AT START OF PERIOD (MM UNIT/PERIOD) "; 390 INPUT U[1] 400 PRINT "AVERAGE PRICE FOR PRODUCT($/UNIT) "; 410 INPUT P2 420 PRINT 423 IF Z5=7 THEN 2360 425 PRINT "BUDGET HORIZON CONDITIONS" 430 PRINT "CONSIDER RESPONSE TO PRODUCT CLASS ADVERTISING "; 440 INPUT Z$ 450 IF Z$[1,1]="N" THEN 640 460 IF Z3=0 THEN 490 470 READ T0,V0,T1,T9,T5,L8 480 GOTO 620 490 PRINT "PRODUCT SALES AT START OF PERIOD(UNITS/PERIOD) "; 500 INPUT T0 510 PRINT "ADV RATE TO@MAIN(AIN SALES (MM@$/PERIOD) "; 520 INPUT V0 530 PRINT "PRODUCT SALES AT END OF PERIOD :" 540 PRINT " IF ADV REDUCED TO ZERO "; 550 INPUT T1 560 PRINT " IF ADV INCREASED TO SATURATION "; 570 INPUT T9 580 PRINT " IF ADV INCREASED 20% OVER MAINTENANCE RATE "; 590 INPUT T5 600 PRINT "PRODUCT SALES IN LONG RUN IF ADV RED TO ZERO "; 610 INPUT L8 620 Z2=1 630 GOTO 650 640 Z2=0 650 FOR I=1 TO N 670 E[I]=E0 680 F[I]=F0 690 J[1,I]=J[2,I]=1 695 J[3,I]=1 700 P[I]=P1 710 Q[I]=P2 720 C[I]=C1 730 NEXT I 740 PRINT "PRODUCT HAS A SEASONAL OR OTHER NON ADV TIME EFFECT "; 750 INPUT Z$ 760 IF Z$[1,1]="N" THEN 870 770 IF Z3=0 THEN 820 780 FOR I=1 TO N 790 READ J[1,I] 800 NEXT I 810 GOTO 870 820 PRINT "INDEX OF PRODUCT CLASS SALES(REF CASE 1.00) FOR PERIOD:" 830 FOR I=1 TO N 840 PRINT I," "; 850 INPUT J[1,I] 860 NEXT I 870 PRINT "BRAND SHARE HAS A NON ADV TIME EFFECT "; 890 INPUT Z$ 900 IF Z$[1,1]="N" THEN 995 910 IF Z3=0 THEN 960 920 FOR I=1 TO N 930 READ J[2,I] 940 NEXT I 950 GOTO 995 960 PRINT "INDEX OF NON ADV TIME EFFECT FOR PERIOD :" 970 FOR I=1 TO N 980 PRINT I," "; 990 INPUT J[2,I] 992 NEXT I 995 PRINT "MAINTENANCE ADVTG VARIES"; 997 INPUT Z$ 1000 IF Z$[1,1]="N" THEN 1020 1002 IF Z3=0 THEN 1012 1004 FOR I=1 TO N 1006 READ J[3,I] 1008 NEXT I 1010 GOTO 1020 1012 PRINT "INDEX OF MAINT ADV (REF CASE =1.00) FOR PERIOD:" 1014 FOR I=1 TO N 1016 PRINT I;" "; 1018 INPUT J[3,I] 1019 NEXT I 1020 PRINT "MEDIA EFFICIENCY VARIES "; 1030 INPUT Z$ 1040 IF Z$[1,1]="N" THEN 1150 1050 IF Z3=0 THEN 1100 1060 FOR I=1 TO N 1070 READ E[I] 1080 NEXT I 1090 GOTO 1150 1100 PRINT "INDEX OF MEDIA EFFICIENCY FOR PERIOD " 1110 FOR I=1 TO N 1120 PRINT I," "; 1130 INPUT E[I] 1140 NEXT I 1150 PRINT "COPY EFECTIVENESS VARIES "; 1170 INPUT Z$ 1180 IF Z$[1,1]="N" THEN 1290 1190 IF Z3=0 THEN 1240 1200 FOR I=1 TO N 1210 READ F[I] 1220 NEXT I 1230 GOTO 1290 1240 PRINT "INDEX OF COPY EFFECTIVENESS FOR PERIOD:" 1250 FOR I=1 TO N 1260 PRINT I," "; 1270 INPUT F[I] 1280 NEXT I 1290 PRINT "BRAND ADV RATE VARIES "; 1310 INPUT Z$ 1320 IF Z$[1,1]="N" THEN 1460 1330 IF Z3=0 THEN 1390 1340 FOR I=1 TO N 1350 READ X[I] 1360 X[I+10]=X[I] 1370 NEXT I 1380 GOTO 1510 1390 PRINT "BRAND ADV (M"'26" DOLLARS) IN PERIOD :" 1400 FOR I=1 TO N 1410 PRINT I," "; 1420 INPUT X[I] 1430 X[I+10]=X[I] 1440 NEXT I 1450 GOTO 1510 1460 PRINT "BRAND ADVERTISING (MM DOLLARS) "; 1470 INPUT X[1] 1475 X[11]=X[1] 1480 FOR I=2 TO N 1490 X[I]=X[1] 1495 X[I+10]=X[I] 1500 NEXT I 1510 PRINT 1515 Z3=0 1517 Z$[1,1]="N" 1520 PRINT "ACTION CODE :1=OUTPUT,2=CHANGE,3=STOP" 1530 PRINT 1540 PRINT "ACTION "; 1550 INPUT Z5 1560 PRINT 1570 GOTO Z5 OF 1580,1600,9999 1580 GOSUB 1620 1590 GOTO 1530 1600 GOSUB 2310 1610 GOTO 1530 1620 B9=M9-M1 1630 D9=(M9-M0)/(M0-M1) 1640 A9=(M1-L9)/(M0-L9) 1650 Y9=D9*(M5-M1)/(M9-M5) 1660 G9=LOG(Y9)/LOG(1.2) 1670 IF Z2=0 THEN 1730 1680 B8=T9-T1 1690 D8=(T9-T1)/(T0-T1) 1700 A8=(T1-L8)/(T0-L8) 1710 Y8=D8*(T5-T1)/(T9-T5) 1720 G8=LOG(Y8)/LOG(1.2) 1730 Z1=1 1740 GOSUB 2110 1750 Z1=0 1760 FOR I2=1 TO N 1770 X[I2]=X[I2]+.05*X0 1780 GOSUB 2110 1790 B[I2]=(P9-A[N])/(.05*X0) 1800 X[I2]=X[I2+10] 1810 NEXT I2 1815 GOSUB 2110 1830 PRINT 1850 PRINT "PERIO SHARE PRODUCT BRAND CONTR BRAND CONTR CUMUL SLOPE" 1860 PRINT " PCT SALES SALES BEF ADV AFT CONTR CC$/$" 1870 PRINT " UNITS UNITS DOLRS UNITS DOLRS ADV DOLRS ADV" 1880 PRINT " (MM) (MM) (000) (000) (000) (000) (000) (000)" 1890 PRINT USING 1900 1900 IMAGE 11("===== ") 1910 FOR I=1 TO N 1920 R1=100*H[I] 1930 R2=T[I] 1940 R3=T[I]*Q[I] 1950 R4=S[I] 1960 R4=1000*R4 1970 R5=S[I]*P[I] 1980 R5=1000*R5 1990 R6=S[I]*C[I] 2000 R6=1000*R6 2010 R7=X[I] 2020 R7=1000*R7 2030 R8=R6-R7 2040 R9=A[I] 2050 R9=1000*R9 2060 R0=B[I] 2070 PRINT USING 2080;I,R1,R2,R3,R4,R5,R6,R7,R8,R9,R0 2080 IMAGE 2X,2D,2X,2D.2DX,8(5D,1X),2D.2D 2090 NEXT I 2100 RETURN 2110 P9=0 2120 FOR I=1 TO N 2122 X3=X[I] 2124 X[I]=X[I]/J[3,I] 2130 I1=I+1 2140 U[I1]=U[1] 2150 IF Z2=0 THEN 2180 2160 V[I]=(V0-X0+X[I])/V0 2170 U[I1]=L8+A8*(U[I1-1]-L8)+B8*V[I]^G8/(D8+V[I]^G8) 2180 W[I]=E[I]*F[I]*X[I]/(E0*F0*X0) 2190 K[I1]=L9+A9*(K[I1-1]-L9)+B9*W[I]^G9/(D9+W[I]^G9) 2200 H[I]=K[I1]*J[2,I] 2210 T[I]=U[I1]*J[1,I] 2220 S[I]=T[I]*H[I] 2225 X[I]=X3 2230 P9=P9+C[I]*S[I]-X[I] 2240 IF Z1=0 THEN 2260 2250 A[I]=P9 2260 NEXT I 2270 RETURN 2310 IF Z4=0 THEN 2360 2320 PRINT "CHANGE CODE :0=NO MORE, 1=MAINT. ADV., 2=MIN. FINAL SHARE" 2330 PRINT "3=MAX FINAL SHARE, 4=FINAL SHARE WITH 20% ADV OVER MAINT" 2340 PRINT "5=LONG RUN MIN., 6=BRAND ADV." 2345 PRINT "7=REFERENCE CASE COND, 8=BUDGET HORIZON COND" 2350 Z4=0 2360 PRINT "CHANGE "; 2370 INPUT Z5 2380 GOTO Z5 OF 2400,2430,2460,2490,2520,2550,135,425 2390 RETURN 2400 PRINT "MAINTENANCE ADVERTISING "; 2410 INPUT X0 2420 GOTO 2360 2430 PRINT "MINIMUM FINAL SHARE "; 2440 INPUT M1 2450 GOTO 2360 2460 PRINT "MAXIMUM FINAL SHARE "; 2470 INPUT M9 2480 GOTO 2360 2490 PRINT "FINAL SHARE WITH 20% ADV OVER MAINTENANCE LEVEL"; 2500 INPUT M5 2510 GOTO 2360 2520 PRINT "LONG RUN MINIMUM SHARE "; 2530 INPUT L9 2540 GOTO 2360 2550 PRINT "BRAND ADVERTISING FOR PERIOD :" 2560 FOR I=1 TO N 2570 PRINT I," "; 2580 INPUT X[I] 2590 X[I+10]=X[I] 2600 NEXT I 2610 GOTO 2360 5000 DATA 4 5010 DATA .054 5020 DATA 1 5030 DATA .045,.063,.0553 5040 DATA 0 5050 DATA 1,1 5060 DATA 2.25,8.6 5070 DATA .055 5080 DATA 22,8.6 5085 DATA .85,1,1.15,1 5090 DATA .8,1,1.2,1 5100 DATA .8,1.2,1.44,1.2 9999 END