9000 REM ****EXDRSK****BUSINESS PROGRAM 9002 REM EXDRSK********VERSION #1 (7/31/69)****EXTENDED RISK ANALYSIS 9004 PRINT "* EXTENDED RISK ANALYSIS *" 9006 PRINT 9008 DIM A[6,15],F[15],G[6,15],J[6,15] 9010 DIM B[8,12],C[6,15],U[8],V[8] 9012 DIM P[15],Q[15] 9014 LET A5=0 9016 LET V[5]=0 9018 LET R1=0 9020 LET R2=0 9022 LET R3=0 9024 LET R4=0 9026 LET R5=0 9028 LET R6=0 9030 LET R7=0 9032 LET R8=0 9034 LET R9=0 9036 LET R0=0 9038 LET L0=20 9040 LET W=.45 9042 LET S2=0 9044 LET X1=-5 9046 FOR I=1 TO 15 9048 IF I>6 THEN 9056 9050 FOR O=1 TO 15 9052 LET A[I,O]=0 9054 NEXT O 9056 LET P[I]=0 9058 LET Q[I]=0 9060 NEXT I 9062 IF A5>0 THEN 9192 9064 LET A1=1 9066 PRINT 9068 PRINT 9070 PRINT "DEFINITION OF FACTORS" 9072 PRINT 9074 PRINT " NUMBER FACTOR" 9076 PRINT " 1 INVESTMENT" 9078 PRINT " 2 MARKET SIZE (UNITS)" 9080 PRINT " 3 SELLING PRICE PER UNIT" 9082 PRINT " 4 SHARE OF MARKET" 9084 PRINT " 5 VARIABLE COSTS ($/UNIT)" 9086 PRINT " 6 FIXED COST ($/PERIOD)" 9088 PRINT " 7 USEFUL LIFE (PERIODS)" 9090 PRINT " 8 RESIDUAL VALUE" 9092 PRINT 9094 PRINT 9096 MAT G=ZER 9098 MAT J=ZER 9100 PRINT 9102 PRINT "IF PRICE, SALES AND OPERATING COSTS ARE INTERDEPENDENT" 9104 PRINT " TYPE 1; OTHERWISE, TYPE 0"; 9106 INPUT L2 9108 PRINT 9110 PRINT "DO YOU NEED INPUT INSTRUCTIONS? (Y OR N)"; 9112 INPUT Z$ 9114 PRINT 9116 IF Z$="N" THEN 9136 9118 PRINT 9120 PRINT "FOR EACH FACTOR YOU WILL BE ASKED TO GIVE 3 ESTIMATES. THE FIRST" 9122 PRINT "IS THE VALUE WHICH YOU THINK THE FACTOR HAS ONLY ONE CHANCE IN TEN OF" 9124 PRINT "FALLING BELOW -- THAT IS, A LOW GUESS. THE SECOND ESTIMATE SHOULD BE" 9126 PRINT "THAT WHICH YOU BELIEVE TO BE THE MOST LIKELY. THE THIRD IS THAT" 9128 PRINT "WHICH YOU FIGURE THE FACTOR HAS ONLY ONE CHANCE IN TEN OF EXECEEDING." 9130 PRINT 9132 PRINT "THUS THE ESTIMATES SHOULD BE TYPED: '* FACTOR X: LOW,MOST LIKELY,HIGH'" 9134 PRINT 9136 PRINT 9138 PRINT "ENTER ESTIMATES FOR:" 9140 FOR I=1 TO 6 9142 PRINT "* FACTOR";I;":" 9144 FOR K=1 TO 4 9146 LET O=2*K-1 9148 LET H=3*K 9150 PRINT " PERIOD ";O; 9152 INPUT B[I,H-2],B[I,H-1],B[I,H] 9154 LET G[I,O]=(B[I,H]-B[I,H-2])/2.56 9156 LET J[I,O]=(B[I,H-2]+B[I,H-1]+B[I,H])/3 9158 IF I=1 THEN 9166 9160 IF K=1 THEN 9166 9162 LET G[I,O-1]=(G[I,O-2]+G[I,O])/2 9164 LET J[I,O-1]=(J[I,O-2]+J[I,O])/2 9166 NEXT K 9168 NEXT I 9170 FOR I=7 TO 8 9172 PRINT 9174 PRINT "* FACTOR";I;":"; 9176 INPUT B[I,1],B[I,2],B[I,3] 9178 LET U[I]=(B[I,3]-B[I,1])/2.56 9180 LET V[I]=(B[I,1]+B[I,2]+B[I,3])/3 9182 NEXT I 9184 PRINT 9186 PRINT "SIMULATION ITERATIONS FOLLOW. AFTER EACH INTERNAL ITERATION" 9188 PRINT "A '-' WILL BE PRINTED. USUALLY 20 ITERATIONS ARE NECESSARY." 9190 PRINT " PLEASE BE PATIENT!" 9192 LET B1=0 9194 FOR K=1 TO 20 9196 LET X=0 9198 FOR H=1 TO 6 9200 LET X=RND(X1)+X 9202 NEXT H 9204 LET X=X-3 9206 LET V[6]=INT(V[7]+U[7]*X+.5) 9208 IF V[6]<16 THEN 9212 9210 LET V[6]=15 9212 FOR I=1 TO V[6] 9214 FOR O=1 TO 6 9216 IF I <= 7 THEN 9222 9218 LET G[O,I]=G[O,I-1] 9220 LET J[O,I]=J[O,I-1] 9222 LET X=0 9224 FOR H=1 TO 6 9226 LET X=RND(X1)+X 9228 NEXT H 9230 LET X=X-3 9232 IF L2=0 THEN 9250 9234 IF O <> 3 THEN 9240 9236 LET Y=1-X 9238 GOTO 9250 9240 IF O <> 4 THEN 9250 9242 LET X=Y 9244 GOTO 9250 9246 IF O <> 5 THEN 9250 9248 LET X=1-Y 9250 LET C[O,I]=J[O,I]+X*G[O,I] 9252 NEXT O 9254 NEXT I 9256 FOR I=1 TO V[6] 9258 LET Q1=C[2,I]*C[4,I] 9260 LET S1=Q1*C[3,I] 9262 LET P[I]=S1-Q1*C[5,I]-C[6,I]-C[1,I] 9264 LET Q[I]=Q[I]+P[I] 9266 NEXT I 9268 LET X=0 9270 FOR I=1 TO 6 9272 LET X=RND(X1)+X 9274 NEXT I 9276 LET X=X-3 9278 LET P[V[6]]=P[V[6]]+(V[8]+U[8]*X) 9280 LET Q[V[6]]=Q[V[6]]+(V[8]+U[8]*X) 9282 GOSUB 9450 9284 IF R>W-.6 THEN 9290 9286 LET R1=R1+1 9288 GOTO 9340 9290 IF R>W-.55 THEN 9296 9292 LET R2=R2+1 9294 GOTO 9340 9296 IF R>W-.5 THEN 9302 9298 LET R3=R3+1 9300 GOTO 9340 9302 IF R>W-.45 THEN 9308 9304 LET R4=R4+1 9306 GOTO 9340 9308 IF R>W-.4 THEN 9314 9310 LET R5=R5+1 9312 GOTO 9340 9314 IF R>W-.35 THEN 9320 9316 LET R6=R6+1 9318 GOTO 9340 9320 IF R>W-.3 THEN 9326 9322 LET R7=R7+1 9324 GOTO 9340 9326 IF R>W-.25 THEN 9332 9328 LET R8=R8+1 9330 GOTO 9340 9332 IF R>W-.2 THEN 9338 9334 LET R9=R9+1 9336 GOTO 9340 9338 LET R0=R0+1 9340 LET S2=S2+R 9342 LET V[5]=V[5]+V[6] 9344 PRINT "-" 9346 FOR I=1 TO 6 9348 FOR O=1 TO V[6] 9350 LET A[I,O]=A[I,O]+C[I,O] 9352 NEXT O 9354 NEXT I 9356 NEXT K 9358 LET Z=S2/L0 9360 PRINT 9362 PRINT "***********************************************************************" 9364 PRINT 9366 PRINT " AVERAGE CASH FLOWS -- ";L0;"SIMULATIONS" 9368 LET V[5]=INT(V[5]/L0+.5) 9370 LET A8=0 9372 FOR I=1 TO V[5] 9374 LET Q[I]=Q[I]/L0 9376 LET A8=A8+Q[I] 9378 IF A8>0 THEN 9382 9380 LET I8=1 9382 PRINT "PERIOD";I;Q[I] 9384 NEXT I 9386 PRINT 9388 PRINT "EXPECTED PAYBACK PERIOD BETWEEN";I8;"AND";I8+1;"PERIODS." 9390 PRINT 9392 PRINT "EXPECTED RATE OF RETURN ";Z 9394 PRINT 9396 PRINT "RATE OF RETURN"," ","PROBABILITY" 9398 PRINT 9400 PRINT W-.6," ",R1/L0 9402 PRINT W-.55," ",R2/L0 9404 PRINT W-.5," ",R3/L0 9406 PRINT W-.45," ",R4/L0 9408 PRINT W-.4," ",R5/L0 9410 PRINT W-.35," ",R6/L0 9412 PRINT W-.3," ",R7/L0 9414 PRINT W-.25," ",R8/L0 9416 PRINT W-.2," ",R9/L0 9418 PRINT W-.15," ",R0/L0 9420 PRINT 9422 PRINT "TYPE 1 IF YOU WANT AVERAGE VALUES PRINTED FOR FACTORS 1-6; OTHERWISE 0"; 9424 INPUT X1 9426 IF X1 <> 1 THEN 9444 9428 PRINT 9430 PRINT "FACTOR","AVERAGE VALUE","PERIOD" 9432 FOR I=1 TO 6 9434 PRINT 9436 FOR O=1 TO V[5] 9438 PRINT I,A[I,O]/L0,O 9440 NEXT O 9442 NEXT I 9444 PRINT 9446 PRINT "***********************************************************************" 9448 STOP 9450 LET B8=0 9452 LET W1=0 9454 FOR H=1 TO 10 9456 LET Q8=.5^H 9458 LET B8=B8+Q8 9460 LET W1=W1+1 9462 IF W1<10 THEN 9466 9464 IF B8>2 THEN 9488 9466 LET E=0 9468 FOR F1=1 TO V[6] 9470 LET E=(P[F1]*(1/((1+B8)^(F1))))+E 9472 NEXT F1 9474 IF E>0 THEN 9458 9476 LET B8=B8-Q8 9478 NEXT H 9480 IF B8=0 THEN 9484 9482 GOTO 9488 9484 LET B8=-.8 9486 GOTO 9452 9488 LET R=B8 9490 RETURN 9999 END